Concern about crime: up. Actual crime: down.

2024 will be an election year in the U.S., and it’s probably be a nasty one. One particular candidate — who faces a boatload of indictments, pretty much committed an act of treason (and possibly more than just that well-publicized one) — still has plenty of followers who see him as either a means to entrench their lofty position in society, or as an avatar into which they can channel their resentment.

That candidate has already campaigned on the fear of rising crime, with crime often being a code word for “the coloreds.” The Southern Strategy still lives.

But actual crime, it turns out, has been dropping:

The problem is that it’s all too easy to sell the idea of rising crime. The general perception, according to a recent Gallup poll, is that crime is up, in spite of the actual numbers. And for those who keep carping about “the illegals” contributing to the not-rising-but-rising crime, the numbers say that they’re may be less of a problem than other groups.

Expect a nastier news cycle in the new year.

Recommended reading

• ABC News: ‘It is historic’: US poised to see record drop in yearly homicides despite public concern over crime
• Axios: Border cities see homicides rates drop
• New York Times: After Rise in Murders During the Pandemic, a Sharp Decline in 2023
• The Guardian: ‘Sitting on a powder keg’: US braces for a year, and an election, like no other

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Thanks to Los Angeles’ best blogger, Tony Pierce, for the find!