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	<title>Comments on: The Existential Iranian Threat</title>
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	<link>http://www.joeydevilla.com/2007/09/18/the-existential-iranian-threat/</link>
	<description>Joey deVilla's Personal Blog</description>
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		<title>By: Joey deVilla</title>
		<link>http://www.joeydevilla.com/2007/09/18/the-existential-iranian-threat/comment-page-1/#comment-60</link>
		<dc:creator>Joey deVilla</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Sep 2007 19:09:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.joeydevilla.com/2007/09/18/the-existential-iranian-threat/#comment-60</guid>
		<description>No problem there. Foland&#039;s devoted way more thought to the graph and may (or may not, you never know) have more ideas behind it than I do.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No problem there. Foland&#8217;s devoted way more thought to the graph and may (or may not, you never know) have more ideas behind it than I do.</p>
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		<title>By: David Janes</title>
		<link>http://www.joeydevilla.com/2007/09/18/the-existential-iranian-threat/comment-page-1/#comment-59</link>
		<dc:creator>David Janes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Sep 2007 18:51:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.joeydevilla.com/2007/09/18/the-existential-iranian-threat/#comment-59</guid>
		<description>&#039;Cause it&#039;s more fun leaving comments on blogs where I know the people?

As far as I can see, the US _is_ mostly taking the tack it did with North Korea!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8216;Cause it&#8217;s more fun leaving comments on blogs where I know the people?</p>
<p>As far as I can see, the US _is_ mostly taking the tack it did with North Korea!</p>
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		<title>By: Eric Grant</title>
		<link>http://www.joeydevilla.com/2007/09/18/the-existential-iranian-threat/comment-page-1/#comment-57</link>
		<dc:creator>Eric Grant</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Sep 2007 18:31:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.joeydevilla.com/2007/09/18/the-existential-iranian-threat/#comment-57</guid>
		<description>I never thought even those most hawkish on Iran thought that a nuclear Iran would be an existentialist threat to the US, but rather that a nuclear Iran would be close enough to an existentialist threat to ...
Israel/Saudia Arabia/Afghanistan/Pakistan/Turkey/wherever geopolitics and religious and ethnic conflicts will take us in the next couple of decades.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I never thought even those most hawkish on Iran thought that a nuclear Iran would be an existentialist threat to the US, but rather that a nuclear Iran would be close enough to an existentialist threat to &#8230;<br />
Israel/Saudia Arabia/Afghanistan/Pakistan/Turkey/wherever geopolitics and religious and ethnic conflicts will take us in the next couple of decades.</p>
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		<title>By: Joey deVilla</title>
		<link>http://www.joeydevilla.com/2007/09/18/the-existential-iranian-threat/comment-page-1/#comment-55</link>
		<dc:creator>Joey deVilla</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Sep 2007 18:02:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.joeydevilla.com/2007/09/18/the-existential-iranian-threat/#comment-55</guid>
		<description>No, I don&#039;t believe she&#039;s a spokesman for the White House. Until recently, that job fell to &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Snow&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;a former FOX News talking head&lt;/a&gt;. 

She, like the network on which she appears, is more of a cheerleader -- they may not determine policy, but they certainly set public opinion and do a pretty good job of promoting the party line. They&#039;re not the de jure house organ, but calling them the de facto one isn&#039;t exaggerating much.

As for how I take the news-and-commentary from MoveOn and &lt;cite&gt;DailyKos&lt;/cite&gt; with the same grain of salt as I do the news from FOX News and &lt;cite&gt;National Review&lt;/cite&gt;, although the latter pair do cause me considerably more eye-rolling.

Back to the Iran and nuclear capability discussion: why wouldn&#039;t the same tack that the U.S. is taking with North Korea, a country we &lt;em&gt;know&lt;/em&gt; is capable of creating and launching (at least short-distance) a nuclear weapon, work?

And finally -- perhaps it&#039;s time to pose questions about the stats to the guy who posted them. Foland&#039;s blog entry with the graph is &lt;a href=&quot;http://nuclearmangos.blogspot.com/2007/09/existential-threats.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;, and he takes comments.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No, I don&#8217;t believe she&#8217;s a spokesman for the White House. Until recently, that job fell to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Snow" rel="nofollow">a former FOX News talking head</a>. </p>
<p>She, like the network on which she appears, is more of a cheerleader &#8212; they may not determine policy, but they certainly set public opinion and do a pretty good job of promoting the party line. They&#8217;re not the de jure house organ, but calling them the de facto one isn&#8217;t exaggerating much.</p>
<p>As for how I take the news-and-commentary from MoveOn and <cite>DailyKos</cite> with the same grain of salt as I do the news from FOX News and <cite>National Review</cite>, although the latter pair do cause me considerably more eye-rolling.</p>
<p>Back to the Iran and nuclear capability discussion: why wouldn&#8217;t the same tack that the U.S. is taking with North Korea, a country we <em>know</em> is capable of creating and launching (at least short-distance) a nuclear weapon, work?</p>
<p>And finally &#8212; perhaps it&#8217;s time to pose questions about the stats to the guy who posted them. Foland&#8217;s blog entry with the graph is <a href="http://nuclearmangos.blogspot.com/2007/09/existential-threats.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>, and he takes comments.</p>
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		<title>By: David Janes</title>
		<link>http://www.joeydevilla.com/2007/09/18/the-existential-iranian-threat/comment-page-1/#comment-51</link>
		<dc:creator>David Janes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Sep 2007 17:04:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.joeydevilla.com/2007/09/18/the-existential-iranian-threat/#comment-51</guid>
		<description>Wow, that&#039;s over the top Joey. You believe that Ann Coulter is a spokesman for the White House, or determines policy? That&#039;s the problem with your IRC chat, moveon, daily kos, etc. etc.: these are real adult problems in the real world; paranoid theorizing, irrelevant statistics, talk about &quot;neo cons&quot; etc. don&#039;t really get a seat at the table.

Still not sure you&#039;re going anywhere with this. You&#039;re saying Iran is never in the foreseeable future going to develop nukes and if they do, well too bad we shouldn&#039;t do anything about them. Or do you actually believe that US policy is about making war for jobs and because they go so well and make everyone happ?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wow, that&#8217;s over the top Joey. You believe that Ann Coulter is a spokesman for the White House, or determines policy? That&#8217;s the problem with your IRC chat, moveon, daily kos, etc. etc.: these are real adult problems in the real world; paranoid theorizing, irrelevant statistics, talk about &#8220;neo cons&#8221; etc. don&#8217;t really get a seat at the table.</p>
<p>Still not sure you&#8217;re going anywhere with this. You&#8217;re saying Iran is never in the foreseeable future going to develop nukes and if they do, well too bad we shouldn&#8217;t do anything about them. Or do you actually believe that US policy is about making war for jobs and because they go so well and make everyone happ?</p>
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		<title>By: Joey deVilla</title>
		<link>http://www.joeydevilla.com/2007/09/18/the-existential-iranian-threat/comment-page-1/#comment-50</link>
		<dc:creator>Joey deVilla</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Sep 2007 16:00:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.joeydevilla.com/2007/09/18/the-existential-iranian-threat/#comment-50</guid>
		<description>The literates count is the pool of people from which they can draw on for developers of nuclear tech. SWUs are a much better indicator. However, Foland&#039;s thesis is based on the assumption that any nukes they may have now or may soon have are home-grown; it falls apart if the nukes are being developed with imported brainpower or developed elsewhere. 

As for the voices calling for a military strike -- and soon! -- let&#039;s just say that I&#039;m a little skeptical now. It wasn&#039;t that long ago when the same voices were talking about Iraq&#039;s nuclear capability.

By the way, here&#039;s the latest example of calls for a military solution, all from the administration&#039;s &lt;em&gt;de facto&lt;/em&gt; house organ...

&lt;strong&gt;Ann Coulter: &quot;Good for Wall Street&quot;&lt;/strong&gt;
&lt;object width=&quot;425&quot; height=&quot;350&quot;&gt;&lt;param name=&quot;movie&quot; value=&quot;http://www.youtube.com/v/rGaBukcIRTs&amp;rel=0&quot;&gt;&lt;/param&gt;&lt;param name=&quot;wmode&quot; value=&quot;transparent&quot;&gt;&lt;/param&gt;&lt;embed src=&quot;http://www.youtube.com/v/rGaBukcIRTs&amp;rel=0&quot; type=&quot;application/x-shockwave-flash&quot; wmode=&quot;transparent&quot; width=&quot;425&quot; height=&quot;350&quot;&gt;&lt;/embed&gt;&lt;/object&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The literates count is the pool of people from which they can draw on for developers of nuclear tech. SWUs are a much better indicator. However, Foland&#8217;s thesis is based on the assumption that any nukes they may have now or may soon have are home-grown; it falls apart if the nukes are being developed with imported brainpower or developed elsewhere. </p>
<p>As for the voices calling for a military strike &#8212; and soon! &#8212; let&#8217;s just say that I&#8217;m a little skeptical now. It wasn&#8217;t that long ago when the same voices were talking about Iraq&#8217;s nuclear capability.</p>
<p>By the way, here&#8217;s the latest example of calls for a military solution, all from the administration&#8217;s <em>de facto</em> house organ&#8230;</p>
<p><strong>Ann Coulter: &#8220;Good for Wall Street&#8221;</strong><br />
<object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/rGaBukcIRTs&#038;rel=0"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/rGaBukcIRTs&#038;rel=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object></p>
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		<title>By: David Janes</title>
		<link>http://www.joeydevilla.com/2007/09/18/the-existential-iranian-threat/comment-page-1/#comment-46</link>
		<dc:creator>David Janes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Sep 2007 12:41:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.joeydevilla.com/2007/09/18/the-existential-iranian-threat/#comment-46</guid>
		<description>You&#039;re confusing &quot;soon&quot; with &quot;before they get the bomb&quot;, which is mentioned in most of the scenarios above. Your friend with the clever charts believes that the date they&#039;ll get the bomb is &quot;never&quot;, right, since the &quot;literates&quot; ratio is so far out of balance, so there&#039;s nothing to worry about, is there?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You&#8217;re confusing &#8220;soon&#8221; with &#8220;before they get the bomb&#8221;, which is mentioned in most of the scenarios above. Your friend with the clever charts believes that the date they&#8217;ll get the bomb is &#8220;never&#8221;, right, since the &#8220;literates&#8221; ratio is so far out of balance, so there&#8217;s nothing to worry about, is there?</p>
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		<title>By: Joey deVilla</title>
		<link>http://www.joeydevilla.com/2007/09/18/the-existential-iranian-threat/comment-page-1/#comment-43</link>
		<dc:creator>Joey deVilla</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Sep 2007 01:04:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.joeydevilla.com/2007/09/18/the-existential-iranian-threat/#comment-43</guid>
		<description>&lt;strong&gt;@DAVID JANES:&lt;/strong&gt; Hey, David!

This is just a quick sampling (gathering with a lazyweb call to some friends on IRC — thanks, guys!) but these articles suggest that their nuke capability is coming within around a year or that the U.S. should attack:

&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,296450,00.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;FOX News, September 12, 2007:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt; A recent decision by German officials to withhold support for any new sanctions against Iran has pushed a broad spectrum of officials in Washington to develop potential scenarios for a military attack on the Islamic regime, FOX News confirmed Tuesday.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/06/10/ftn/main2908476.shtml&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;CBS News, June 10, 2007:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt; Lieberman: Bomb Iran If It Doesn&#039;t Stop -- &quot;&quot;I think we&#039;ve got to be prepared to take aggressive military action against the Iranians to stop them from killing Americans in Iraq.&quot;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/05/16/wbolton16.xml&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;cite&gt;Telegraph&lt;cite&gt;, May 17, 2007:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt; We must attack Iran before it gets the bomb -- John Bolton: &quot;&quot;If we can&#039;t get enough other countries to come along with us to do that, then we&#039;ve got to go with regime change by bolstering opposition groups and the like, because that&#039;s the circumstance most likely for an Iranian government to decide that it&#039;s safer not to pursue nuclear weapons than to continue to do so. And if all else fails, if the choice is between a nuclear-capable Iran and the use of force, then I think we need to look at the use of force.&quot;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-op-muravchik19nov19,0,1681154.story?coll=la-opinion-center&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;cite&gt;LA Times&lt;/cite&gt;, November 19, 2006:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt; Bomb Iran (written by Joshua Muravchik at the American Enterprise Institute)-- &quot;WE MUST bomb Iran. It has been four years since that country&#039;s secret nuclear program was brought to light, and the path of diplomacy and sanctions has led nowhere.&quot;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/rod_liddle/article711356.ece&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;cite&gt;Sunday Times&lt;/cite&gt;, April 30, 2006:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt; &lt;cite&gt;We May Have to Bomb Iran&lt;/cite&gt; -- &quot;Natanz seems an agreeable little town, perched nearly 5,000ft up in the majestic mountains of central Iran, full of dusty relics of Alexander the Great and black-clad peasants scurrying hither and thither. It is a shame, then, that we may soon be obliged to bomb it to smithereens. An even bigger shame, though, if we don’t.&quot;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>@DAVID JANES:</strong> Hey, David!</p>
<p>This is just a quick sampling (gathering with a lazyweb call to some friends on IRC — thanks, guys!) but these articles suggest that their nuke capability is coming within around a year or that the U.S. should attack:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,296450,00.html" rel="nofollow"><strong>FOX News, September 12, 2007:</strong></a> A recent decision by German officials to withhold support for any new sanctions against Iran has pushed a broad spectrum of officials in Washington to develop potential scenarios for a military attack on the Islamic regime, FOX News confirmed Tuesday.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/06/10/ftn/main2908476.shtml" rel="nofollow"><strong>CBS News, June 10, 2007:</strong></a> Lieberman: Bomb Iran If It Doesn&#8217;t Stop &#8212; &#8220;&#8221;I think we&#8217;ve got to be prepared to take aggressive military action against the Iranians to stop them from killing Americans in Iraq.&#8221;</li>
<li><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/05/16/wbolton16.xml" rel="nofollow"><strong><cite>Telegraph</cite><cite>, May 17, 2007:</cite></strong></a> We must attack Iran before it gets the bomb &#8212; John Bolton: &#8220;&#8221;If we can&#8217;t get enough other countries to come along with us to do that, then we&#8217;ve got to go with regime change by bolstering opposition groups and the like, because that&#8217;s the circumstance most likely for an Iranian government to decide that it&#8217;s safer not to pursue nuclear weapons than to continue to do so. And if all else fails, if the choice is between a nuclear-capable Iran and the use of force, then I think we need to look at the use of force.&#8221;</li>
<li><a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-op-muravchik19nov19,0,1681154.story?coll=la-opinion-center" rel="nofollow"><strong><cite>LA Times</cite>, November 19, 2006:</strong></a> Bomb Iran (written by Joshua Muravchik at the American Enterprise Institute)&#8211; &#8220;WE MUST bomb Iran. It has been four years since that country&#8217;s secret nuclear program was brought to light, and the path of diplomacy and sanctions has led nowhere.&#8221;</li>
<li><a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/rod_liddle/article711356.ece" rel="nofollow"><strong><cite>Sunday Times</cite>, April 30, 2006:</strong></a> <cite>We May Have to Bomb Iran</cite> &#8212; &#8220;Natanz seems an agreeable little town, perched nearly 5,000ft up in the majestic mountains of central Iran, full of dusty relics of Alexander the Great and black-clad peasants scurrying hither and thither. It is a shame, then, that we may soon be obliged to bomb it to smithereens. An even bigger shame, though, if we don’t.&#8221;</li>
</ul>
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		<title>By: David Janes</title>
		<link>http://www.joeydevilla.com/2007/09/18/the-existential-iranian-threat/comment-page-1/#comment-41</link>
		<dc:creator>David Janes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Sep 2007 23:14:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.joeydevilla.com/2007/09/18/the-existential-iranian-threat/#comment-41</guid>
		<description>This post should be framed and put in a place of pride in the &quot;how to say nothing with numbers&quot; hall of fame.

_A_ nuke is a grave danger, as an attack is good for trillion dollars worth of damages and probably tens of thousands of lost lives. I don&#039;t think I&#039;ve seen too many claims that Iran&#039;s going to be able to put one together in the next 5 years but after that it seems reasonably possible, especially since they are being assisted by existing nuclear powers. The fact that the US has &quot;3000 100k&quot; population and Iran only has &quot;80 100k&quot; doesn&#039;t really enter the equation.

And I&#039;m not sure what neo-cons _you&#039;re_ reading, but most hawkish commentators I follow believe that the West should be undermining the government (in various ways) as the main line of attack as most realize the population is very pro-Western, at least relative to the region.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This post should be framed and put in a place of pride in the &#8220;how to say nothing with numbers&#8221; hall of fame.</p>
<p>_A_ nuke is a grave danger, as an attack is good for trillion dollars worth of damages and probably tens of thousands of lost lives. I don&#8217;t think I&#8217;ve seen too many claims that Iran&#8217;s going to be able to put one together in the next 5 years but after that it seems reasonably possible, especially since they are being assisted by existing nuclear powers. The fact that the US has &#8220;3000 100k&#8221; population and Iran only has &#8220;80 100k&#8221; doesn&#8217;t really enter the equation.</p>
<p>And I&#8217;m not sure what neo-cons _you&#8217;re_ reading, but most hawkish commentators I follow believe that the West should be undermining the government (in various ways) as the main line of attack as most realize the population is very pro-Western, at least relative to the region.</p>
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